Issue: 2024/Vol.34/No.3, Pages 101-124
DOES A META-COMBINING METHOD LEAD TO MORE ACCURATE FORECASTS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS?
Emrah Gulay
, Serkan Aras
Cite as: E. Gulay, S. Aras. Does a meta-combining method lead to more accurate forecasts in the decision-making process?. Operations Research and Decisions 2024: 34(3), 101-124. DOI 10.37190/ord240306
Abstract
To improve forecasting accuracy, researchers employed various combination techniques for a long time. When researchers deal with time series data by using dissimilar models, the combined forecasts of these models are expected to be superior. Deriving a weighting scheme performing better than simple but hard−to−beat combining methods has always been challenging. In this study, a new weighting method based on the hybridisation of combining algorithms is proposed. Five popular datasets were utilised to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in an out-of-sample context. The results indicate that the proposed method leads to more accurate forecasts than other combining techniques used in the study.
Keywords: forecasting, combined forecasts, time series, meta−combining
Received: 2 June 2023 Accepted: 2 July 2024
Published online: 17 October 2024