Issue: 2009/Vol.19/No.3, Pages 119-128
METHOD OF PLANNING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RISK FACTORS
Dariusz Skorupka
Cite as: D. Skorupka. Method of planning construction projects, taking into account risk factors. Operations Research and Decisions 2009: 19(3), 119-128.
Abstract
This paper presents an original method of planning construction projects, taking into account the influence of potential risk factors. The method is called the Method of Construction Risk Assessment (MOCRA). According to this method, first the material-financial plan of a project (a construction project in the example provided) is analyzed. Then risk factors are identified, taking into account the project’s specificity. The end result of this stage is a list of risk factors. In the third stage the risk is reduced or minimized where possible. Finally, the specified risk factors are quantified, which is a difficult task. The effectiveness of the risk assessment depends on how thoroughly this task is carried out. Since point scale assessment of risk does not appeal to engineers, in MOCRA quantified risk is allocated in the material-financial plan. Thanks to this, one can prepare contingency plans, i.e. plans (action variants) to be implemented when particular risk factors occur. Having completed the project, one can use MOCRA to check the accuracy of the assessment (forecast) and select the best contingency action variant, whereby the method’s effectiveness in planning future projects is improved.
Keywords: risk, scheduling, construction project
Received: Accepted: