Issue: 2021/Vol.31/No.3, Pages 137-152
PREDICTION OF PORK MEAT PRICES BY SELECTED METHODS AS AN ELEMENT SUPPORTING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Monika Zielińska-Sitkiewicz
, Mariola Chrzanowska
Cite as: M. Zielińska-Sitkiewicz, M. Chrzanowska. Prediction of pork meat prices by selected methods as an element supporting the decision-making process. Operations Research and Decisions 2021: 31(3), 137-152. DOI 10.37190/ord210307
Abstract
Forecasts of economic processes can be determined using various methods, and each of them has its own characteristics and is based on specific assumptions. In the case of agriculture, forecasting is an essential element of efficient management of the entire farming process. The pork sector is one of the main agricultural sectors in the world. Pork consumption and supply are the highest among all types of meat, and Poland belongs to the group of large producers. The article analyses the price formation of class E pork, expressed in € per 100 kg of carcass, recorded from May 2004 to December 2019. The data comes from the Agri-food data portal. A creeping trend model with segments of linear trends of various lengths and the methodology of building ARIMA models are used to forecast these prices. The accuracy of forecasts is verified by forecasting ex post and ex ante errors, graphical analysis, and backcasting analysis. The study shows that both methods can be used in the prediction of pork prices.
Keywords: agricultural sector, pork prices, forecast, creeping trend, ARIMA models
Received: 30 November 2020 Accepted: 29 June 2021