Issue: 2017/Vol.27/No.1, Pages 57-75
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLES IN POLAND AND ITS MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS
Arkadiusz Kijek
Cite as: A. Kijek. Spectral analysis of business cycles in Poland and its major trading partners. Operations Research and Decisions 2017: 27(1), 57-75. DOI 10.5277/ord170104
Abstract
The properties of business cycles in Poland and its major trading partners have been examined. The business cycle synchronization (BCS) between Poland and other countries was studied in order to assess the impact of international trade on BCS. The author applies a modification of the Fourier analysis to the estimation of cycle amplitudes and frequencies. This allows more precise estimation of the cycle characteristics than the traditional approach. Cross-spectral analysis of the cyclical components of GDP for Poland and its major trading partners enables us to study the relationships between business cycles in these countries. Comparing the international structure of Polish trade with that of EU members with the cross-spectral characteristics of GDP series allows us to investigate the links between international trade and business cycle synchronization
Keywords: business cycle, synchronization, spectral analysis, Fourier representatio
Received: 29 August 2016 Accepted: 7 February 2017