Issue: 2016/Vol.26/No.3, Pages 69-82
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN POLAND
Edyta Ropuszyńska-Surma
, Magdalena Węglarz
Cite as: E. Ropuszyńska-Surma, M. Węglarz. Residential electricity consumption in Poland. Operations Research and Decisions 2016: 26(3), 69-82. DOI 10.5277/ord160305
Abstract
Key factors influencing electricity consumption in the residential sector in Poland have been identified. A fixed-effects model was used, which includes time effects, and a set of covariates, based on the model developed by Houthakker et al. This model estimates electricity demand by using lagged values of the dependent variable along with current and lagged values of electricity prices, and other variables that affect electricity demand such as: population, economic growth, income per capita, price of related goods, etc. The model has been identified according to the research results of the authors and those obtained by Bentzen and Engsted. The set of covariates was extended to the lagged electricity price given by a tariff (taken from two years previous to the time of interest) and heating degree days index, a very important factor in European Union countries, where the climate is temperate. The authors propose four models of residential electricity demand, for which a confidence interval of 95% has been assumed. Estimation was based on Polish quarterly data for the years 2003–2013.
Keywords: forecasting, demand forecasting, econometric model, electricity consumption, HDD index
Received: 31 December 2015 Accepted: 15 September 2016