Issue: 2012/Vol.22/No.4, Pages 87-103
APPLICATION OF FUZZY NUMBERS TO THE ESTIMATION OF AN ONGOING PROJECT'S COMPLETION TIME
Cite as: D. Kuchta. Application of fuzzy numbers to the estimation of an ongoing project's completion time. Operations Research and Decisions 2012: 22(4), 87-103. DOI 10.5277/ord120405
A dynamic, interactive approach to the control of a project’s realization time is proposed. The duration time of the project’s activities is assumed to depend on certain factors whose influence may change in time. Based on the project’s history up to a certain moment, the change in influence of these factors has been evaluated and estimates of the duration of activities which have not been started yet are updated. The estimates of the duration time of the activities and project are expressed in the form of fuzzy numbers. This allows us to keep a constant track of the risk of the project not keeping the deadline and to be aware of which factors influence delays, thus where to act in order to minimize the final delay while it is not yet too late – in the course of the project’s realization, as early as possible.
Keywords: estimation of a project’s completion time, project control, risk of project delay, fuzzy duration of an activity